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Quotient case studiesForecast · Outcome · Return

Proof of Edge

Resolved case studies show where Q disagreed with the market, what it found, and what happened next. Each case preserves the forecast, market price, outcome, and verified return in the public record.

Case index

5 resolved cases
Case 01 · Strait of HormuzMay 31, 2026

The deadline the market could not meet.

Market

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end of May?

What Q saw

The physical reopening path could not clear before the deadline.

Q forecast
3%
Market
68%
Outcome
NO
Return
+212.3%
Case 02 · UFO declassificationJune 12, 2026

The market mistook a delay for a dead program.

Market

Will Trump declassify new UFO files by June 15?

What Q saw

The market mistook a delay for a dead program. The files were still in production.

Q forecast
55%
Market
24%
Outcome
YES
Return
+315%
Case 03 · Israel airspaceJuly 1, 2026

The market priced a closure the rules excluded.

Market

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

What Q saw

Israel's revised protocol absorbs missile fire with ground stops and passenger caps. The market was pricing a closure the resolution criteria excluded.

Q forecast
12%
Market
49.5%
Outcome
NO
Return
+97.7%
Case 04 · NeymarJune 25, 2026

Q corrected before the market did.

Market

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

What Q saw

The market was anchored on a controversy. Selection had become a fitness test Neymar was already passing.

Q forecast
57%
Market
43%
Outcome
YES
Return
+132.4%
Case 05 · Iranian enriched uraniumMay 31, 2026

The headlines outran the physical transfer.

Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

What Q saw

Every physical path to possession was too slow for the deadline.

Q forecast
4%
Market
18%
Outcome
NO
Return
+22.0%

Every case here is a resolved call with a public, dated record. Q does not win every market. The full track record holds the complete set, wins and losses.

See the track record