Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit $750 in September?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket52¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO48¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 16

Forecast updated

Sep 1 forecast

SPY’s larger uptrend remains intact, so a $750 September low is a meaningful underdog.

SPY ended August at $767.05 after trading as low as $764.72, leaving the threshold close enough for a modest pullback to matter. Downside pressure is credible: momentum has weakened, hedge funds are selling, and September has historically struggled. Still, the larger trend remains bullish, equities entered the month near their recent peak, and implied volatility was near a one-year low. Support around $755–$760 most likely contains the decline, though the full September window and one-minute-low rule keep a $750 touch live.

Points to NO

SPY’s larger uptrend remains intact despite weaker short-term momentum.
On September 1, SPY’s larger trend remained bullish, and its pullback into the mid-$760s had not broken that trend.
Subdued implied volatility argues against the sharp downside excursion needed to reach $750.
At the end of August, one-month implied equity volatility was near a one-year low across several major indices.

Points to YES

SPY began September close enough to $750 for a modest pullback to reach the threshold.
On August 31, SPY traded as low as $764.72.
Weakening market participation and heavy hedge-fund selling increase the risk of a short-term washout.
On September 1, hedge funds were selling U.S. equities at their fastest pace since Liberation Day, with net leverage at a one-year low.
September’s historically weak return profile raises the risk of a monthly drawdown.
As of August 31, September had averaged a negative 0.6% S&P 500 return since 1950.

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