Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Aug 26?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+52%$100 paper stake

Kalshi66¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES66¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 26

Forecast updatedAug 26

Latest quotes place Bitcoin just above the threshold after a powerful August rally, so a price of at least $78,000 on August 26 is likely.

Bitcoin enters the decisive period slightly above the threshold, supported by strong August momentum and sustained spot-fund inflows. The cushion is thin, however, and the sharp retreat from above $81,000 shows that profit-taking and liquidations can quickly erase it. An above-threshold reading is the more likely outcome, but substantial two-way volatility leaves meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Bitcoin's latest observed price was above the threshold, giving it a small but important head start into the applicable check.
At 05:19 on August 26, Bitcoin was $78,540.70, within a daily range of $78,320.90 to $79,230.90.
The powerful August advance creates continued buying momentum and makes a rebound above the threshold more plausible after brief dips.
A report published late on August 25 said Bitcoin had recently rallied to around $80,000 and gained almost 30% during August.
Persistent spot-fund inflows provide an additional source of demand that can help absorb selling near the threshold.
U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recorded $337.6 million of net inflows on August 25, extending their inflow streak to six sessions.

Points to NO

The failure to hold above $80,000 shows that sellers can overwhelm momentum and quickly push Bitcoin back toward the threshold.
On August 26, Bitcoin pulled back to around $78,500 after reaching a three-month high of $81,238.
Heavy profit-taking and elevated exchange inflows increase available selling supply, raising the risk of a sudden move below the threshold.
On August 25, short-term-holder whales were reported to have realized about $1.2 billion of profit from August 20 through August 22 as exchange inflows reached roughly 53,000 Bitcoin.

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