Chicago Cubs1vs.San Diego Padres won4

MLBFinal24h volume $1.2M

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Sep 27 forecast

Chicago won five of six season meetings, so a Cubs victory is favored.

Most late-season evidence favors San Diego, including its home record, strong finish and Chicago’s offensive slump. Chicago is still the more likely winner because it repeatedly solved this matchup, while one-game baseball remains volatile and the pitching matchup is unsettled.

Points to Cubs

Chicago consistently won this matchup throughout the regular season, including at Petco Park.
As reported September 27, the Cubs won five of six regular-season meetings with the Padres, including two of three in San Diego.
Pete Crow-Armstrong enters the series as Chicago’s strongest source of power and speed.
On September 27, Crow-Armstrong became the seventh MLB player to record at least 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in one season.
San Diego’s pitching depth is reduced by several postseason absences.
On September 27, Casey Mize, Lucas Giolito and Joe Musgrove were on the injured list and unavailable for the Wild Card Series.

Points to Padres

San Diego has a substantial home-field advantage in Game 2.
As of September 27, the Padres had gone 50-30 at Petco Park during the regular season.
San Diego enters the postseason with sustained winning form.
By September 26, the Padres had gone 47-29 since standing 43-42 earlier in the season.
Chicago’s offense struggled during the final stretch of the regular season.
Through September 25, the Cubs had scored nine total runs across their previous five games.

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