Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,250 on Sep 7?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi69¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES69¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 7

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Bitcoin already trades above $79,250 with less than a day remaining, so a September 7 settlement at or above the threshold is likely.

Bitcoin is currently about 1.3% above the threshold with less than a day until settlement, making an above-threshold finish likely. Recent trading near $80,000 and support from short-term moving averages favor YES, while mixed momentum readings and September 4's abrupt selloff leave meaningful uncertainty. The narrow cushion means an ordinary bout of Bitcoin volatility could still reverse the outcome before settlement.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a modest cushion above the settlement threshold.
On September 7, the settlement-basis price was $80,298.83, compared with the $79,250 threshold.
Short-term trend measures remain supportive despite mixed momentum.
On September 6, Bitcoin remained above its 10-day and 20-day moving averages of $78,771 and $77,231, while multiple exponential moving averages showed bullish signals.
Recent institutional fund flows indicate continued demand for Bitcoin exposure.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received net inflows on September 3 and September 4, including $730.8 million on the first day.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has recently demonstrated enough intraday volatility to erase the entire cushion quickly.
On September 4, Bitcoin lost more than 4% within an hour after reaching $82,240 and briefly fell from $81,300 to $78,600 within minutes.
Near-term technical assessments identify downside targets below the settlement threshold.
At 00:08 UTC+8 on September 7, Lihui suggested a short entry above $80,000 targeting $79,300 to $78,800.

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