Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Sep 7?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake

Kalshi76¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES76¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 7

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Bitcoin sits above the $79,000 threshold with less than a day remaining, so a September 7 settlement at or above $79,000 is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final stretch near $80,269, leaving a cushion of roughly 1.6% over the $79,000 floor. Recent trading has clustered around $80,000, while strong ETF inflows and support above principal daily moving averages favor holding the line. The visible short-term signals nevertheless lean bearish: downside targets straddle the threshold, and Bitcoin recently crossed it within minutes after a macroeconomic release. Even so, the time left is short, making settlement above the floor more likely than a sufficiently large late drop.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a narrow but meaningful cushion above the settlement threshold.
On September 7, the settlement-basis price was near $80,269, roughly 1.6% above $79,000.
Recent institutional demand provides support beneath Bitcoin's price.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $905.4 million across the two trading sessions ending September 4.
Bitcoin remains technically supported despite weak short-term momentum.
On September 6, Bitcoin remained above its principal daily moving averages.

Points to NO

Bitcoin can traverse the entire settlement cushion within minutes during abrupt news-driven selling.
On September 4, Bitcoin fell from $81,300 to $78,600 within minutes after the U.S. employment report.
A current bearish assessment places Bitcoin's downside path directly across the $79,000 threshold.
Shortly after midnight on September 7 in UTC+8, Zhang Lihui identified a short target of $79,300–$78,800, with deeper losses possible after a lower support break.

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