Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?
WTI is trading above $84.99 amid renewed regional strikes, so an October-contract settlement above the threshold is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
The settlement-basis price is 86.1765, giving WTI a modest cushion above the $84.99 threshold after renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities lifted oil. Constrained Hormuz traffic and depleted inventories support that premium. However, Friday’s $83.40 settlement, recovering Gulf exports and limited assessed upside show how quickly prices could retreat. An above-threshold settlement is likely with meaningful uncertainty because the cushion is narrow and sharp moves remain plausible before the fixing.
- The October WTI contract has moved back above the settlement threshold.On August 31, 2026, WTI was quoted at $85.08 per barrel, up $1.68 for the day.
- Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting has restored part of crude oil’s geopolitical premium.On August 31, oil rose after renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, while Brent moved above $90 per barrel.
- Severely constrained Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to threaten physical oil supply.On August 27, commercial traffic through the Strait was just under 10% of normal prewar levels.
- WTI recently settled well below the threshold, demonstrating substantial downside volatility.WTI settled at $83.40 per barrel on August 28, 2026.
- Recovering Gulf exports reduce the scarcity pressure supporting crude prices.On August 28, Goldman Sachs estimated Persian Gulf exports at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of prewar levels.
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