Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,250 on Aug 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Kalshi26¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin remains below $79,250 with less than a day to recover, so an August 31 settlement at or above the strike is unlikely.

The settlement-basis price is about $78,282, requiring a 1.24% gain with 12.9 hours remaining. Bitcoin recently traded above the strike, keeping a late rebound plausible, but repeated rejection near $80,000, fresh ETF outflows, and hawkish monetary signals favor another below-strike finish. A lone delayed FT/LSEG index reading far above the strike conflicts sharply with contemporaneous prices near $78,000 and adds measurement uncertainty rather than persuasive support.

Points to NO

Bitcoin currently sits below the $79,250 strike with little time remaining.
On August 31, the settlement-basis price was about $78,282, 1.24% below the strike with 12.9 hours to settle.
Repeated rejection near $80,000 shows persistent resistance just above the strike.
On August 30, Bitcoin was near $78,000 after the $80,000 level rejected it twice in late August.
Hawkish monetary signals have recently triggered heavy selling and liquidations.
On August 28, Bitcoin fell below $77,000 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks, while $478 million in leveraged positions were liquidated.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has recently demonstrated enough intraday range to cross the strike.
On August 30, Bitcoin traded as high as $79,380.30 before closing at $77,639.00.

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