Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,000 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin remains above the cutoff amid strong fund demand and positive momentum, so an August 28 price at or above $77,000 is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final days above the threshold, supported by substantial fund inflows, limited tradable supply, and positive momentum. The cushion is not secure: overbought conditions, resistance near $80,000, and elevated derivatives positioning leave room for a sharp pullback. Continued spot demand should nevertheless keep the Aug. 28 price above $77,000.

Points to YES

Bitcoin already has a cushion above $77,000, reducing the additional buying needed and raising the chance it remains above the threshold through Aug. 28.
At 20:00:08 on Aug. 25, major exchange bids ranged from $78,816.70 to $78,846.49 despite a retreat from earlier session highs.
Strong spot-fund inflows are adding durable demand that can absorb profit-taking and support the price through the short remaining window.
On Aug. 25, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds followed their strongest weekly inflow in ten months with another $337 million of net inflows.
The rally has not depended on expanding leveraged long positions, making it less vulnerable to an immediate cascade of forced long liquidations.
On Aug. 24, Bitcoin was near $77,800 while futures open interest had fallen to 715,000 BTC from 762,000 BTC on Aug. 18, indicating spot buying and short unwinding drove the advance.

Points to NO

Extremely overbought conditions increase the risk of a corrective decline large enough to cross below the threshold before the pricing date.
On Aug. 25, Bitcoin's relative strength index was near 83, while initial technical support was identified at $76,706, below the threshold.
Resistance near $80,000 and crowded derivatives positioning could amplify rejection into a sharp reversal, threatening the relatively narrow cushion above the threshold.
An Aug. 25 report identified concentrated resistance at $80,000 and warned that elevated derivatives positioning could produce leveraged volatility or a sharp reversal.

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