Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,000 on Sep 11?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+72%$100 paper stake

Kalshi42¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO58¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Repeated failures to hold $80,000 leave momentum bearish, so Bitcoin settling at or above $80,000 on September 11 is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin is only 1.38% below $80,000, but recent rallies above that threshold have repeatedly reversed. Short-term momentum has weakened, and resistance extends beyond the threshold into the low $80,000s. A recent trade above $82,000 and strong ETF inflows keep an upside move credible, but a below-threshold settlement remains more likely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin entered the final window below $80,000 and was losing ground.
At 8 a.m. on September 9, Bitcoin traded at $78,510, down 0.59% from the previous day.
Repeated failures at $80,000 have turned the threshold into near-term resistance.
By September 9, Bitcoin had failed to settle above $80,000, broken support at $79,250 and fallen below its four-hour 100-period moving average.
The short-term technical structure points toward continued pressure below the threshold.
On September 8, Bitcoin showed a bearish daily MACD crossover and traded below key moving averages on its one-hour and 15-minute charts.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has already demonstrated enough near-term volatility to clear $80,000.
Bitcoin reached a multi-week high of $82,266 on September 8 before reversing.
Recent institutional demand provides support for another upward attempt.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $987 million in net inflows during the week through September 4, their third consecutive positive week.

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