Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket22¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO78¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 17

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

Every recent poll puts the Moderate Party behind the Sweden Democrats, so a second-place Moderate finish is a long shot.

The Moderate Party trails the Sweden Democrats in every supplied late-campaign poll, and current seat projections preserve that ordering. The gap has occasionally narrowed enough for polling uncertainty and a late shift to leave an upset path, but the Moderates also finished third in the previous election. With little campaign time remaining, a Moderate second-place finish is a long shot.

Points to NO

The latest polling average places the Moderate Party third, behind both the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats.
On September 2, PolitPro's weighted average put the Moderates on 17.7%, behind the Sweden Democrats on 19.7% and Social Democrats on 29.2%.
The latest seat projection gives the Sweden Democrats a meaningful advantage over the Moderates.
On September 2, PolitPro projected 65 Moderate seats, compared with 72 for the Sweden Democrats and 106 for the Social Democrats.
The newest Novus poll shows the Moderate Party losing ground as the Sweden Democrats gain.
In the August 24–30 Novus poll, Moderate support fell by 1.1 percentage points while Sweden Democrat support rose by 1.6 points.

Points to YES

At least one late-August poll showed a narrow enough gap for ordinary survey uncertainty to matter.
The Demoskop poll ending August 24 put the Moderates only 1.1 percentage points behind the Sweden Democrats.

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