QuotientQuotientQuotient

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake
Polymarket72¢ 100¢
Our position · YES72¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 29 forecast

Reported silent routing and checkpoint tests suggest Fable 5.1 is near launch, so a qualifying Mythos-class release by the deadline is likely.

Multiple reports of silent routing, early-access checkpoints, and imminent launch preparations point to a product already near deployment. Anthropic can qualify a safeguarded Fable release without opening unrestricted Mythos access, as it did with Fable 5. The meaningful uncertainty is that all recent Fable 5.1 evidence remains unofficial, while the separately described stronger internal model has unfinished safety work and no external-release plan.

Points to YES
Points to NO

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.