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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold+52%$100 paper stake
Polymarket58¢ 88¢
Our position · YES58¢ 88¢
Signal endedAug 29
Forecast updatedAug 28
Aug 22 forecast

Anthropic already has a stronger post-Mythos model in heavy internal use, so a publicly accessible next Mythos-class model by the deadline is likely.

Anthropic has already built and deployed internally a model stronger than Mythos 5, leaving release readiness, safeguards, and product packaging as the main hurdles. Its June statement that more capable models were coming in the following months supports a release within the window, while Fable 5 shows that Anthropic can wrap Mythos-level capabilities in safeguards suitable for broad access. The main uncertainty is substantial: Anthropic currently has no external-release plan for Model 2, has not completed its usual evaluation suite, and continues to restrict access to the existing Mythos 5 because of dual-use risks. A qualifying successor is therefore likely, but with meaningful uncertainty over whether safety work finishes before the deadline.

Points to YES
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