Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Aug 26?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+85%$100 paper stake

Kalshi54¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES54¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 26

Forecast updatedAug 26

Aug 26 forecast

Multiple August 26 spot and reference quotes sit above the cutoff, so bitcoin at or above $78,250 on August 26 is likely.

Independent spot and benchmark readings on August 26 cluster near $79,000, above the required level, and futures point to a similar price. Recent investment inflows and falling Treasury yields support demand. The main uncertainty is unusually sharp volatility: bitcoin has already traded below the cutoff intraday, while stretched momentum and scheduled economic releases leave room for another abrupt reversal.

Points to YES

Bitcoin's current spot level leaves a modest cushion over the cutoff, raising the chance that the relevant August 26 observation qualifies.
On August 26, Bitget displayed bitcoin at $79,113.54.
A separate real-time benchmark corroborates the above-cutoff spot reading, reducing the chance that support rests on one venue alone.
At 04:29:01 GMT on August 26, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Real-Time Index stood at 79,002.88.
A continuing run of spot-bitcoin fund inflows supports fresh buying that can absorb sales and help bitcoin remain above the cutoff.
On August 25, a six-day run of U.S. spot-bitcoin ETF inflows reached $2.26 billion after a $338 million daily inflow.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has already crossed below the cutoff intraday, showing that the current cushion can disappear during ordinary volatility.
On August 26, the CME CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index recorded a low of $77,853.30 and a high of $79,233.40.
Stretched short-term momentum increases the risk of profit-taking that could push bitcoin back through the nearby cutoff.
On August 25, bitcoin's daily RSI reached 82.93, its highest level since November 2024.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.