Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

October WTI is trading above the threshold hours before settlement amid severe Hormuz disruption, so an August 31 settlement above $84.99 is likely.

October WTI has climbed above $84.99 with only hours remaining as attacks and severely reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz support a supply-risk premium. The official settlement is not yet available, and three preceding settlements below the threshold show that the small cushion can disappear quickly. Still, the current price, acute regional disruption, and limited time for conditions to reverse make an above-threshold settlement likely.

Points to YES

October WTI traded materially above $84.99 on the morning of settlement day.
At 5:52 a.m. EDT on August 31, the October 2026 WTI contract was displayed at $86.50 per barrel.
Direct military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is sustaining immediate oil-supply risk.
On August 31, Iran launched ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles toward Strait of Hormuz positions after a U.S. strike on Iranian launcher facilities.
Commercial traffic through the Strait remains severely constrained.
Commodity-ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to five per day over the August 29–30 weekend.

Points to NO

The contract entered settlement day after three consecutive closes below $84.99.
The October 2026 WTI contract settled at $83.40 per barrel on August 28.
Diplomatic efforts could reduce the disruption premium if they produce credible shipping relief.
On August 26, Iran and Oman discussed a temporary maritime corridor and further negotiations over the following 30 to 60 days.

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