US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

The US is unlikely to declare the Iranian blockade over by August 31 because no visible diplomatic framework exists for ending a blockade reinstated only on July 14.

As of July 16, the U.S. resumed its naval blockade on July 14 (E1, E2, E6, E8, E9) and is actively enforcing it, including disabling a ship attempting to break it (E4, E11). President Trump and CENTCOM have described the U.S. as the 'guardian' of Hormuz and stated the blockade is back in force (E5, E7). There has been no statement suggesting suspension or termination (E3 notes a peace framework in motion but no end announced). The resolution requires a clear, unambiguous, official, present-tense announcement ending or lifting the blockade generally—partial exemptions or contingent promises do not count. The same-market prior was 0.14, consistent with extreme skepticism. I adjust downward to a final 19% because the blockade is not only active but freshly reasserted, diplomatic pathways appear broken, and Trump’s messaging frames the blockade as a continuing strategic…