Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 15, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi54¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO46¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 16

Forecast updated

Oct 15 forecast

WTI was trading below the 94.49 strike, around 94.83, with the December 2026 contract slipping through the day and recent prints near 93–93.75.

The main offsetting forces were a large U.S. crude stock draw and ongoing Middle East shipping disruptions, but Reuters also reported easing concerns from possible U.S. moves on Russian tanker restrictions, and the contract had already broken down from the prior day’s 93.90 settlement. Given that setup, Q leans toward an affirmative close above the strike, but only with a clear underdog edge.

No factor breakdown on this forecast.

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