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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake
Polymarket78¢ 100¢
Our position · YES78¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedAug 30
Aug 29 forecast

Reports of live routing to successor checkpoints suggest rollout is already underway, so a qualifying Mythos-class release by the deadline is likely.

Several recent reports describe ordinary users being routed to likely successor checkpoints, with Melon repeatedly identified as Fable 5.1 and close to launch. That resembles a staged rollout rather than distant experimentation. A safeguarded Fable release can qualify because Anthropic previously designated Fable 5 as Mythos-class despite restricting direct Mythos access. Meaningful uncertainty remains because Anthropic has not confirmed Fable 5.1, its classification, or its public-release schedule, and the observed checkpoints could still be delayed or withdrawn.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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