Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

The direct Israel-Iran ceasefire is probable to survive through August 31 because both sides are strategically avoiding direct strikes—Israel is sidelined in US-Iran fighting and Iran is deliberately targeting Gulf states instead.

As of late July, Israel and Iran are not fighting each other directly. Israel is focused on Lebanon and Gaza and has stayed out of US-Iran exchanges. Iran is firing missiles at US bases and Gulf countries but is deliberately avoiding Israel to keep talks alive and avoid a wider war. The market asks whether this holds for another 31 days. The main risk is a sudden escalation—perhaps an Israeli strike on Iranian targets or an Iranian decision to widen attacks—but there is no visible sign of either as of July 31. Earlier in June, direct strikes did happen after a Lebanon escalation, so the ceasefire is fragile, but the current strategic incentives strongly favor continued avoidance. I expect the ceasefire to hold, though a meaningful minority chance of a break remains.