Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
Recent surveys consistently place Collins well ahead of other non-Donalds candidates, so Collins finishing second is highly likely.
The available evidence from mid-August 2026 shows Donalds with an overwhelming lead near or above 49 percent. Among the challengers, a JMI survey cited on August 6 and reiterated on August 13 puts Collins at 18 percent, Renner at 8 percent, and Fishback at 4 percent, with a large undecided bloc. Another summary of polling on August 16 also lists Collins in the mid-teens with Renner in single digits. By contrast, an August 6 Florida Phoenix report using poll averages showed Fishback at about 12.1 percent and Collins at 11.5 percent, and an August 17 Miami Herald framing noted Fishback could emerge as a strong second. Some social-media predictions also place Fishback second. However, the more recent direct survey measurements and the structural context—Collins being the principal endorsed challenger with greater visibility—suggest the average closer to the JMI figures is more representative. The election has not yet been reported in the supplied sources, but the directional indicators and near-term dynamics point strongly toward Collins securing second place. A sharp reversal would require Fishback to outperform his survey numbers by a wide margin or for undecideds to break overwhelmingly against Collins, which is not supported by the current record.
- Repeated JMI surveys show Collins at 18 percent, more than four times Fishback's 4 percent and double Renner's 8 percent, establishing a clear second-place position in direct polling.An Aug 6 JMI poll cited Aug 6 lists Donalds 49%, Collins 18%, Renner 8%, Fishback 4%, and an Aug 13 article repeats the same figures with 21% undecided.
- Mid-August polling summaries consistently place Collins in the mid-teens, well above Renner and ahead of Fishback in the same instruments, reinforcing runner-up status.An Aug 16 X post summarizes polls with Donalds near 50%, Collins mid-teens, Renner single digits; another Aug 16 post notes liberal polling with Collins mid-teens and Fishback lower.
- The primary is imminent with no reported results yet, and the structural dynamics—Trump endorsement for Donalds, Collins as the main funded challenger—leave Collins as the default runner-up absent a surprise.AP on Aug 17 lists 11 GOP candidates including Collins, Donalds, Fishback, and Renner, noting Donalds has Trump endorsement and overwhelming financial advantage, with the election on Aug 18.
- One August 6 aggregate and an August 17 news framing highlight Fishback near 12 percent and Collins near 11.5 percent, with the Herald explicitly warning Fishback could be the dangerous second-place finisher.Florida Phoenix on Aug 6 reports poll averages of Donalds ~43%, Fishback ~12.1%, Collins ~11.5%; the Miami Herald on Aug 17 notes if Fishback is a strong second that could threaten Donalds in November.
- Social-media predictions and some observers forecast Fishback finishing a distant second with Collins in third or fourth, suggesting an alternative vote distribution.An Aug 16 X post predicts Donalds first, Fishback distant second, Collins and Renner in third and fourth, with the author suggesting DeSantis regrets backing Collins.
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