Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+18%$100 paper stake
Polymarket84¢ → 99¢
Our position · YES84¢ → 99¢
Signal endedAug 29
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 22 forecast
The film has cleared $800 million while its weekly grosses are halving, so an $800–$900 million August 31 finish is highly likely.
The film has already passed the bracket’s lower boundary, making an overshoot the only realistic failure path. Its exceptional momentum creates some danger of reaching the next bracket, but steep weekly declines, shrinking weekday audiences and a projected fourth-weekend slowdown favor a finish below the ceiling.
Points to YES
- The lower boundary has already been cleared, eliminating nearly all risk of finishing short and leaving only an overshoot as the practical failure path.On August 21, The Numbers reported a domestic total of $825.7 million after a $9.8 million Friday.
- Successive weekly declines make it increasingly difficult for the remaining days to generate enough revenue to cross the upper boundary.The Numbers reported weekly grosses of $510.1 million, $205.7 million and $100.1 million across the film’s first three weeks, with declines of 60% and 51%.
- Widespread school reopenings should suppress the weekday business needed to reach $900 million before the deadline.On August 22, Deadline reported that only 38% of K-12 schools remained on summer break as of August 21.
Points to NO
- The projected fourth-weekend total would move the film close enough to the ceiling that a strong final week could push it into the higher bracket.On August 22, Deadline projected a $36.5 million fourth weekend and an estimated $852.4 million cumulative total by Sunday.
- The film’s unusually strong third week shows that its late-run demand remains capable of outperforming normal decay and threatening the ceiling.On August 21, Deadline reported a $100.1 million third week, ahead of Avengers: Endgame’s $80.9 million third week.
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