Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+138%$100 paper stake

Polymarket42¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES42¢ → 100¢

Signal endedJul 23

Forecast updated

Jul 14 forecast

At least one successful Houthi strike on shipping is likely by July 31 because resumed Red Sea saturation attacks can overwhelm even robust coalition defenses.

Houthi maritime operations have resumed, and saturation tactics heavily favor at least one successful strike over a 17-day period, though robust defensive measures present a significant counter-force.

Points to YES

UKMTO recorded 6-boat tanker approach off Aden, July 13
UKMTO recorded 6-boat tanker approach off Aden, July 13.
Houthi official warned Bab el-Mandeb closure possible, July 14
Houthi leadership warned Bab el-Mandeb closure possible, July 14.

Points to NO

Armed security fired warning shots at small boats, July 13
Tanker security teams fired warning shots at boats, July 13.

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