Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+19%$100 paper stake
Polymarket42¢ → 50¢
Our position · YES42¢ → 50¢
Signal endedJul 21
Forecast updatedJul 22
Jul 14 forecast
At least one successful Houthi strike on shipping is likely by July 31 because resumed Red Sea saturation attacks can overwhelm even robust coalition defenses.
Houthi maritime operations have resumed, and saturation tactics heavily favor at least one successful strike over a 17-day period, though robust defensive measures present a significant counter-force.
Points to YES
- UKMTO recorded 6-boat tanker approach off Aden, July 13UKMTO recorded 6-boat tanker approach off Aden, July 13.
- Houthi official warned Bab el-Mandeb closure possible, July 14Houthi leadership warned Bab el-Mandeb closure possible, July 14.
Points to NO
- Armed security fired warning shots at small boats, July 13Tanker security teams fired warning shots at boats, July 13.
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