Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Realized · held to resolution−99%$100 paper stake
Polymarket31¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES31¢ → 0¢
Signal endedAug 30
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 23 forecast
The estimated total leaves roughly $45 million to earn in eight days, so the film’s $900 million domestic target is favored but far from guaranteed.
The film is estimated at $854.9 million through August 23, leaving about $45.1 million to earn by the deadline. Its recent pace makes that attainable, but declining weekends, fewer theaters and weaker school-season weekdays leave meaningful risk of a shortfall. The latest weekend figures also remain estimates, so revisions could shift the required pace.
Points to YES
- The remaining gap is achievable at the film’s recent pace, making enough additional gross by the deadline the more likely outcome.On August 23, the official studio projection put the film at $854.901 million after an estimated $39 million fourth weekend.
- Recent weekdays still generated substantial revenue, supporting meaningful additions before the fifth weekend begins.Finalized grosses for August 17-20 totaled about $29.4 million, including daily grosses ranging from roughly $5.5 million to $9.9 million.
- The fourth weekend strengthened as it unfolded, suggesting demand was more resilient than early estimates indicated and improving the deadline path.During August 21-23, the fourth-weekend estimate rose from roughly $35 million-$36.5 million to $39 million.
Points to NO
- Successive large weekend declines and the first theater reduction point to continued decay, increasing the chance that the film falls short before August ends.The estimated fourth weekend fell 45% to $39 million as the theater count declined by 533 locations to 4,006.
- The expanding school calendar is likely to suppress weekday attendance, concentrating more of the remaining burden on the final weekend.Screendollars reported that 70% of U.S. K-12 students would have restarted school by August 24 and expected weekday business to shrink dramatically.
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