Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi54¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES54¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 26 forecast

Bitcoin is already trading modestly above the threshold after a powerful rally backed by fresh inflows, so an August 28 price of at least $78,000 is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final two days with a modest cushion above the threshold and strong recent momentum supported by ETF inflows and expanding stablecoin liquidity. Repeated rejection near $81,000, overbought readings, and demand for downside protection create meaningful uncertainty, but the short window favors holding enough of the recent advance to remain above $78,000.

Points to YES

Bitcoin's current position above $79,000 provides a modest cushion over the threshold, reducing the decline needed before August 28 and making an above-threshold reading more likely.
On August 26, the Bitcoin Real-Time Index displayed $79,024.46 after ranging from $77,853.30 to $79,233.40 during the session.
Large recent ETF inflows provide spot demand that can absorb selling and help preserve the rally through the short remaining window.
On August 24, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $337.56 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC.
Expanding stablecoin supply adds deployable crypto-market liquidity, improving the chance that buyers absorb profit-taking near the threshold.
On August 25, reported seven-day supply growth was $2.2 billion for USDT and $1.8 billion for USDC.

Points to NO

Overheated momentum and repeated rejection near $81,000 increase the chance of a sharp pullback that crosses below the threshold before the relevant August 28 reading.
On August 25, Bitcoin's daily RSI reached 82.93, its highest since November 2024, indicating short-term overheating.
Profit-taking by newer large holders creates near-term supply that could overwhelm the market's narrow cushion if fresh demand weakens.
On August 25, monitored on-chain commentary said newer large holders had realized more than $1.2 billion in profits over three days.
Persistent demand for downside protection signals concern about an abrupt reversal, leaving the above-threshold outcome exposed to near-term volatility.
On August 25, seven-day options skews remained negative even after Bitcoin's rally, indicating continued demand for downside protection.

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