Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,500 on Sep 4?
Bitcoin has repeatedly traded above $80,500 today despite sitting just below it now, so a settlement at or above the threshold is narrowly favored.
Bitcoin’s settlement-basis price is about $79,875, only 0.78% below the strike, after trading above $80,500 several times and reaching beyond $82,000 today. Strong ETF inflows and August’s rally support another rebound, but weak apparent demand, profit-taking and stretched short-term momentum leave substantial downside risk. With the threshold nearby and ample evidence of two-way intraday movement, a finish at or above $80,500 is narrowly more likely than a finish below it.
- Bitcoin has repeatedly cleared the settlement threshold during the current session.On September 4, Bitcoin was reported at $81,137, above the $80,500 threshold.
- The session’s rebound shows enough intraday momentum to cover the remaining gap.On September 4, Bitcoin reached a session high of $82,317.12 after opening at $77,433.74.
- Large spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide evidence of renewed institutional demand.US spot Bitcoin ETFs received $730.9 million on September 3, their largest one-day inflow since mid-January.
- Short-term momentum is bearish while the broader price structure appears stretched.On September 4, one-hour MACD showed bearish momentum and the daily RSI was assessed at a stretched 72.4.
- Underlying demand has weakened as sellers gain more readily available exchange supply.On September 4, 30-day apparent Bitcoin demand was reported at negative 80,000 BTC.
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