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Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+22%$100 paper stake
Polymarket66¢ 81¢
Our position · YES66¢ 81¢
Signal endedAug 16
Forecast updatedAug 17
Aug 9 forecast

Apple is likely to remain the world’s second-largest company by market cap on August 31, as it holds a roughly $300 billion lead over Alphabet with Nvidia firmly first.

As of August 7-8, credible market data place Apple second globally at about $4.57 trillion to $4.60 trillion, trailing only Nvidia near $5.4 trillion. Alphabet is third near $4.29 trillion to $4.32 trillion, and Microsoft is fourth near $3.71 trillion. That creates a buffer of more than $250 billion over Alphabet, the nearest challenger. An earlier August 3 report briefly showed Alphabet ahead, but subsequent data corrected that, confirming Apple reclaimed second place. Apple’s recent weakness—down nearly 10% on a weak forecast in late July—already reduced its value, yet it still sits well above Alphabet. With 22 days remaining, normal market movement is unlikely to erase such a gap, especially since both firms face similar macro conditions. The main risk is an idiosyncratic Apple drop combined with Alphabet strength, but that is not the base case. Therefore, Apple finishing second is the likely outcome, though not guaranteed given equity volatility.

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