Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket29¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO71¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 5

Forecast updated

Aug 29 forecast

Cury trails several rivals across recent national polls, so a third-place finish is unlikely despite his sharp rise in online attention.

Cury’s third-place finish is unlikely. Most recent national polls place several minor candidates ahead of him, and his weak spontaneous support suggests limited committed backing. His rapid social-media growth and one poll showing him level with leading third-place contenders create an upset path, but limited broadcast time makes a broad late conversion harder.

Points to NO

Repeated deficits to several minor candidates leave Cury needing to overtake multiple rivals, lowering his chance of finishing third.
The August 25–27 Vox Brasil poll put Cury at 2.6%, behind Caiado at 5%, Renan Santos at 3.3%, and Zema at 2.8%.
Weak spontaneous support suggests Cury’s visibility has not become unprompted voting intent, making a durable late climb harder.
In Datafolha polling conducted August 18–20, Cury was not individually listed in spontaneous results while four competing minor candidates registered support.
Limited broadcast time restricts Cury’s repeated mass-audience exposure relative to Caiado, making the existing polling gap harder to close before election day.
On August 20, the electoral court allocated Cury 35 seconds of daily free broadcast time, compared with 2 minutes and 2 seconds for Caiado.

Points to YES

Cury’s sudden and favorable online surge gives him a plausible route to convert wider visibility into votes and overtake the minor-candidate pack.
By August 27, his Instagram following had risen from 8.4 million to 10.3 million in two days, while his share of social-media mentions climbed sharply and most measured mentions were positive.
One national poll placing Cury level with leading third-place contenders keeps the outcome live because small shifts within the clustered field could put him ahead.
The August 23–26 PoderData/Aya poll put Cury, Caiado, and Renan Santos level at 4%, with a two-point margin of error.

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