Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+317%$100 paper stake

Kalshi76¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO24¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

The live price is barely above the threshold after earlier trading below it.

The current settlement-basis price of $92.3674 is just above the $91.99 threshold, while the previous settlement and several early September 3 quotes were below it. Recent trading has already reached above the threshold, and geopolitical tension plus a larger-than-expected inventory draw could support another rise. However, the small cushion and conflicting intraday readings leave an at-or-below-threshold settlement marginally more likely.

Points to NO

The previous official settlement left WTI nearly one dollar below the threshold.
October WTI settled at $91.01 per barrel on September 2, despite gaining 79 cents that day.
Early September 3 trading remained below the required level.
WTI traded at $90.77 per barrel at 00:29 GMT on September 3.

Points to YES

The current settlement-basis price stands slightly above the required threshold.
On September 3, the settlement-basis price was $92.3674, about 0.41% above $91.99.
WTI has already demonstrated enough intraday strength to cross the threshold.
WTI reached $92.29 per barrel during September 2 trading, above the market threshold.
Military escalation involving Iran and commercial shipping creates upside risk for crude prices.
U.S. forces struck IRGC military targets on September 1 after attempted attacks against commercial shipping.

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