Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Polymarket16¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

With only $43.6 million left after September 1, a sub-$940 million finish is a long shot.

The visible evidence points firmly above the cutoff. The film had earned $896.4 million by September 1, leaving $43.6 million with most of the month remaining, while industry estimates placed its finish above $940 million. Its sharp Tuesday decline, theater losses, and approaching competition create downside, but finishing below the threshold would require a much steeper slowdown than current projections imply.

Points to NO

Only $43.6 million separates the film from $940 million, leaving most of September to clear the threshold.
On September 1, the reported domestic total reached $896,395,379.
Industry estimates place the final domestic gross above the threshold.
On September 1, industry estimates projected a domestic finish between $950 million and $960 million.
Recent weekend earnings remain large relative to the remaining gap.
The film grossed $22,513,101 domestically over the August 28–30 weekend.

Points to YES

The weekday run is deteriorating quickly, increasing the risk of a sharper September slowdown.
The September 1 domestic gross was 46% below the previous Tuesday’s gross.
Shrinking theater coverage and incoming competition could accelerate the late-run decline.
The film lost 328 theaters entering the August 28 weekend, falling from 4,006 theaters to 3,678.

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