Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?

The central bank is expected to keep the key rate at 14.25% on July 24, with overwhelming analyst consensus and rising inflation expectations making a cut unlikely.

Almost all surveyed analysts and market signals point to the Bank of Russia leaving its key rate unchanged at 14.25% on July 24. Inflation expectations have surged to their highest level this year, a fuel crisis is pushing prices up, and the central bank's own June statement warned that fiscal policy may require higher rates. While President Putin and some officials have called for further easing, the board's data-driven stance and the overwhelming expert consensus favor a pause. A surprise 25 basis point cut is possible but remains a clear minority view. With only two days until the meeting, there is little room for new information to shift the decision.