US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+40%$100 paper stake
Polymarket38¢ → 14¢
Our position · NO62¢ → 86¢
Signal endedJul 20
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 13 forecast
A senior US-Iran meeting by July 31 is unlikely, as Iranian strikes on regional mediator venues have closed the space for talks.
Active kinetic exchanges and direct attacks on mediator venues suppress the probability of formal senior-level talks
Points to NO
- IRGC struck US installations in five mediator states, July 12IRGC struck US installations in five mediator states, July 12 2026
- US and Iran traded major kinetic strikes, July 11-13US and Iran traded major kinetic strikes, July 11-13 2026
- Iranian Foreign Ministry invalidated previous MOU, July 13Iranian Foreign Ministry invalidated previous MOU, July 13 2026
Points to YES
- Iranian FM acknowledged active Qatari and Omani mediation, July 13Iranian FM acknowledged active Qatari and Omani mediation, July 13 2026
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