Will BTC trimmed mean be above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Kalshi68¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

The settlement measure sits only 1.73% below its threshold with nearly four weeks remaining, so a BTC trimmed-mean breach is likely.

Bitcoin is already close to the threshold and reached $82,240 on September 4. The visible evidence is mixed because recent gains relied heavily on short liquidations, while substantial selling and overhead resistance remain. The settlement rule dampens brief spikes, so Bitcoin must hold sufficient strength rather than merely touch the threshold momentarily. Even so, the small remaining gap and substantial time before expiration make a trimmed-mean breach more likely than not.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has already approached within $260 of the threshold.
On September 4, 2026, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $82,240, its highest level since May.
Strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide fresh buying support.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $730.9 million in net inflows on September 3, 2026, their largest daily inflow since January 14.
Large corporate purchases are adding demand near current price levels.
Strategy acquired 4,603 Bitcoin for $369.7 million between August 24 and August 30, 2026, at an average price of $80,318.

Points to NO

The recent rally lacks convincing spot-demand confirmation and faces heavy resistance.
On September 3, 2026, short liquidations drove much of the rally, apparent demand turned negative, and resistance remained concentrated around $82,300 to $83,000.
Persistent selling pressure could prevent Bitcoin from sustaining the required advance.
Sellers offloaded roughly $1.2 billion of Bitcoin between August 23 and September 1, 2026, averaging $120 million per day.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.