Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Polymarket16¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 1

Forecast updated

Jul 18 forecast

Israel is highly unlikely to close its airspace by July 31 because authorities are actively preserving open civil skies to protect summer flights.

Israeli civil aviation is fully operational on July 18 with government policy explicitly aimed at preserving flights. The 13-day window is short, the kinetic threshold established in June (keeping airspace open during Iranian strikes) is high, and all current NOTAMs are localized. The closest resolved forecasting cases for Israel closures in comparable windows all resolved NO with low probabilities. A broad closure would require a rapid, unmodeled strategic shock that overrides economic and alliance priorities. The evidence strongly supports persistence of open airspace.

Points to NO

Ben Gurion is actively operating with departures/arrivals (E2) and government aims to protect summer flights through July 21 (E5,E6).
Evidence
IAA publishes only localized NOTAMs (UAV, routes, runway) with no broad suspension (E1).
Evidence
EASA lowered Israel risk classification and the conflict-zone bulletin expired July 8 (E3); prior conflict airspace fully reopened (E8).
Evidence

Points to YES

The region remains conflict-prone and 13 days allow for sudden escalation; prior conflict did cause temporary closures.
Evidence
The same-market prior forecast (2026-07-13) assigned 11.5%, reflecting residual volatility.

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