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Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+7%$100 paper stake
Polymarket68¢ 73¢
Our position · YES68¢ 73¢
Signal endedAug 23
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 16 forecast

With about $784M through Aug 15 and roughly $11-20M in recent daily grosses, the film should clear $800M comfortably but face a tougher climb to $900M, so finishing between 800m and 900m is likely.

The film opened July 31 and has accumulated roughly $735M-$784M by Aug 15-16 according to The Numbers and Box Office Mojo. Its third weekend came in near $67M, and daily grosses have been running in the low-to-mid teens in millions. That pace makes $800M a near-certainty with more than two weeks left. The upper bound of $900M is the real constraint: it needs sustained strength through the final August weekend without a steep drop-off. Competition from new releases is modest relative to Spider-Man's draw, so a sharp collapse is not indicated. The resolution source, The Numbers, has not yet finalized values through Aug 31, but the trajectory points squarely into the 800M-900M band. The main uncertainty is whether late-August holds are strong enough to push the total past $900M, which would fall outside the range.

Points to YES
Points to NO
  • Sustained late-August strength near $7M per day through Aug 31 could push the total above $900M, which would fall outside the range.
    Reaching $900M requires about $116M more from roughly Aug 16 to Aug 31, averaging near $7M per day including the final weekend.

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