Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Sep 4?
Signal ended
Entry · NO44¢
PublishedSep 3
Sep 3 forecast
Bitcoin is marginally below the strike amid short-term weakness and nearby selling pressure, so a $78,000-or-higher September 4 settlement is a meaningful underdog.
Bitcoin is close enough to cross $78,000 during ordinary intraday movement, and it already briefly did so on September 3. Still, most contemporaneous readings place it below the threshold, short-term momentum is weak, and holders near breakeven could sell into a rebound. Recent investment inflows provide support, but a below-threshold September 4 settlement is more likely.
Points to NO
- Bitcoin is just below the settlement threshold with little time remaining.On September 3, settlement-basis Bitcoin was approximately $77,880, about 0.15% below $78,000.
- A dense band of holders near breakeven could sell into any threshold recovery.On September 3, roughly 880,000 BTC had a cost basis between $77,500 and $80,300, creating potential breakeven selling in that range.
- Short-term price structure remains weak despite the narrow gap to the strike.On September 2, Bitcoin traded below its 20-, 50- and 200-period hourly exponential moving averages in a bearish hourly structure.
Points to YES
- The threshold is within the current trading range and has already been crossed intraday.By 11:03 UTC on September 3, Kraken recorded a 24-hour high of $78,048.02, slightly above the threshold.
- Renewed investment inflows provide some support after the recent pullback.US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $101.1 million net inflow on September 2.
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