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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake
Polymarket74¢ 100¢
Our position · YES74¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 30 forecast

Reports of early-access Fable 5.1 checkpoints and silent routing indicate launch preparation, so Anthropic’s public Mythos-class release by September 9 is likely.

Several late-August reports describe Fable 5.1 checkpoints, limited routing, and a release candidate apparently selected after testing. That pattern points toward a staged launch, reinforced by Anthropic’s earlier promise of more capable models in the coming months. The evidence remains unofficial, however, and no public model card, stable identifier, pricing page, or Anthropic announcement had appeared by August 29. A launch can follow limited testing with little advance notice, making a qualifying public release likely despite the missing official artifacts.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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