QuotientQuotientQuotient

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold37%$100 paper stake
Polymarket63¢ 40¢
Our position · YES63¢ 40¢
Signal endedAug 20
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 13 forecast

The forecast is likely that domestic gross reaches at least $900 million by August 31, driven by a $691 million running total through August 11 and strong daily holds.

The resolution depends on finalized The Numbers daily figures through August 31. As of August 11, the cumulative is about $691 million, leaving roughly $209 million to reach the threshold over 20 days. The film just posted a massive second weekend around $144.5 million and a 10-day cume near $655 million, with August 10 and 11 showing healthy $16.7 million and $20.0 million weekdays. One August 12 report states the film will pass $700 million that day and is definitely going to reach $900 million in North America. Another source frames the path as effectively locked in if the current lead holds, though it cautions projections are not fixed and momentum can shift, with a range of $850 million to $950 million and $1 billion likely out of reach. Given the pace—about $50 million ahead of comparable benchmarks—the trajectory strongly favors reaching $900 million, but because resolution requires finalized figures and there is a non-trivial lower-bound projection near $850 million, the outcome is likely yet carries meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES
Points to NO

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.