Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026?
Fresh regional attacks pushed October WTI above the threshold with hours remaining, so an August 31 settlement above $85.49 is favored but far from guaranteed.
The current settlement-basis price is $85.63, leaving only a narrow cushion above the threshold. October WTI earlier reached $86.58 after escalating U.S.-Iran attacks and severe Hormuz shipping disruption lifted crude. The previous settlement was $83.40, recovering Persian Gulf exports limit upside, and the official settlement window is still ahead. An above-threshold settlement is therefore favored but far from guaranteed.
- October WTI has already traded more than a dollar above the threshold on settlement day.At 5:52 a.m. EDT on August 31, the October contract was quoted at $86.50, up from its $83.40 previous close.
- Fresh U.S.-Iran attacks are sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in crude.On August 31, oil prices gapped higher after the United States struck Iranian missile launchers and Iran reportedly retaliated against U.S. regional assets.
- Severely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to constrain oil flows.Commodity-ship passages through the Strait of Hormuz fell to five per day over the weekend immediately before August 31.
- The previous official settlement was well below the required level.The October 2026 WTI contract settled at $83.40 per barrel on August 28, down $0.13 for the day.
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the scope for further price gains.On August 28, Persian Gulf oil exports were reported at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels.
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