Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Polymarket32¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 5

Forecast updated

Jul 12 forecast

Daily Hormuz transits will very likely stay below 40 through July 31, because Iran's confirmed July 12 strike on a commercial vessel keeps shipping away.

The July 12 formal closure and actual strike on a commercial ship overwrite previous statistical variance models. Traffic is structurally suppressed by lethal risk.

Points to NO

Tehran announced formal Hormuz closure, July 12
Directly invalidates prior assumptions of an open, high-variance transit corridor.
Iranian forces damaged GFS Galaxy, July 12
Physical destruction prevents commercial risk-taking and spikes insurance.
Traffic plunged to 34 vessels, July 10
Confirms the baseline traffic had already dropped below the 40 threshold before the formal closure.

Points to YES

US Navy mass escort potential
A bundled convoy could artificially create a single >40 spike day.

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