Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+36%$100 paper stake
Polymarket32¢ → 8¢
Our position · NO68¢ → 92¢
Signal endedJul 19
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 12 forecast
Daily Hormuz transits will very likely stay below 40 through July 31, because Iran's confirmed July 12 strike on a commercial vessel keeps shipping away.
The July 12 formal closure and actual strike on a commercial ship overwrite previous statistical variance models. Traffic is structurally suppressed by lethal risk.
Points to NO
- Tehran announced formal Hormuz closure, July 12Directly invalidates prior assumptions of an open, high-variance transit corridor.
- Iranian forces damaged GFS Galaxy, July 12Physical destruction prevents commercial risk-taking and spikes insurance.
- Traffic plunged to 34 vessels, July 10Confirms the baseline traffic had already dropped below the 40 threshold before the formal closure.
Points to YES
- US Navy mass escort potentialA bundled convoy could artificially create a single >40 spike day.
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