QuotientQuotientQuotient

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+30%$100 paper stake
Polymarket62¢ 81¢
Our position · YES62¢ 81¢
Signal endedAug 24
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 17 forecast

Recent daily grosses near $20M-$29M put the film on pace to add roughly $150M-$250M by Aug 31, so reaching the 800M-900M band is favored but far from guaranteed.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day stood at about $785.8M domestically as of Aug 16, leaving roughly 14 days to accumulate more gross before Aug 31. Recent dailies have ranged from about $19M to $29M, and the third weekend added about $70M, confirming the film still draws substantial audiences. At those rates, adding roughly $15M to $115M over the remaining window is plausible, which would place the final total inside the 800M to 900M band. However, source discrepancies show the exact base is unsettled—Box Office Mojo lists a lower figure—while resolution depends specifically on The Numbers finalized figures, which could adjust estimates. Late-August weekdays typically weaken, and without guaranteed weekend strength, falling short of $800M remains a real possibility. Overall, reaching the range is favored but far from guaranteed.

Points to YES
Points to NO

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.