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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+82%$100 paper stake
Polymarket55¢ 100¢
Our position · YES55¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 31 forecast

Reports of stealth testing and an end-of-August target indicate launch preparations, so a public Mythos-class model release by September 1 is likely, with meaningful uncertainty.

Recent reports of stealth testing, an end-of-August target, and an insider’s near-term release claim support a last-minute launch. The official record is less supportive: Anthropic had not confirmed Fable 5.1 by August 27, while known Mythos access remained restricted. The forecast therefore depends on a launch already being prepared behind closed doors and announced with little warning before the deadline.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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