Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+18%$100 paper stake
Polymarket51¢ → 60¢
Our position · YES51¢ → 60¢
Signal endedJul 21
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 14 forecast
The Houthis will very likely strike a commercial vessel by August 31 because the violent collapse of the Saudi-Houthi de-escalation framework has reincentivized maximalist maritime attacks.
Truce collapse and explicit blockade threats guarantee a sustained Houthi anti-shipping campaign; historically, defenses cannot intercept 100 percent of projectiles over a 7-week window.
No factor breakdown on this forecast.
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