Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+117%$100 paper stake

Polymarket46¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES46¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 27

Forecast updated

Oct 21 forecast

YES: Q 54.1% · Market odds 48.5% at forecast

Polling Lead. Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford among decided voters in the latest Nanos survey.

Main caution: Brad Bradford now leads narrowly in two recent polls and has surged in North York.

Evidence and updates

Turnout Edge. Olivia Chow's advantage is largest among voters most certain to cast a ballot.

Ground Game. Olivia Chow's campaign credits hundreds of volunteers and a sharp rise in advance voting.

Q updated; quotes are not comparable. Q −3.4 pts since the previous forecast, for YES.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-21T17:18:10.329156+00:00 · 2026-10-21T17:10:00+00:00.

Ask Q: Do the final pre-election surveys and any regional breakdowns show Olivia Chow's support among the most certain voters holding, or do late deciders in North York and Etobicoke consolidate behind Brad Bradford?

Polling Lead

The CP24/CTV News Toronto/Nanos Research survey released October 20, 2026 found 49.8% of decided voters supporting Chow compared with 46.6% for Bradford.

Turnout Edge

The October 20, 2026 Nanos survey found Chow has a four-point advantage among those most likely to vote while Bradford leads by four points among those less certain to vote.

Ground Game

Main caution

Points to YES

Olivia Chow's support is concentrated among voters most certain to cast a ballot, while Brad Bradford's is stronger among less certain voters.
The October 20, 2026 Nanos survey found Chow with a four-point advantage among those most likely to vote and Bradford leading by four points among those less certain to vote.
Three recent surveys put Olivia Chow ahead among decided voters in the final week of the campaign.
The CP24/CTV News Toronto/Nanos Research survey released October 20, 2026 found 49.8% of decided voters supporting Olivia Chow and 46.6% supporting Brad Bradford.
Advance voting ran far above 2023 levels, and Olivia Chow's campaign credits a large volunteer operation across the city.
The City of Toronto reported 222,550 eligible voters voted during six days of advance voting in 2026, nearly 72% more than the 2023 mayoral byelection.

Points to NO

Two of the newest snapshots put Brad Bradford marginally ahead and show Olivia Chow's earlier lead erased.
A Liaison Strategies survey released October 21, 2026 found Brad Bradford at 49% and Olivia Chow at 47% among decided and leaning voters.
Brad Bradford has overtaken Olivia Chow in North York, the region that moved most in the final week.
David Valentin said North York shifted from a 50%-46% Olivia Chow lead to a 56%-42% Brad Bradford lead in the latest Liaison Strategies survey.
Voter mood is sour, with more Torontonians dissatisfied than satisfied with Olivia Chow's record as mayor.
A Pallas Data poll conducted October 14, 2026 found 39% satisfied and 49% dissatisfied with Olivia Chow's performance as mayor.

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