Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+26%$100 paper stake
Polymarket52¢ → 40¢
Our position · NO48¢ → 60¢
Signal endedJul 21
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 14 forecast
Iran is very unlikely to charge Hormuz transit fees by August 31 because it has suspended its own permitting system that would collect them.
Active US blockade and Iranian PGSA suspension preclude fee collection.
Points to NO
- US reinstated active naval blockadeUS forces reinstated naval blockade on Iranian ports, July 14 2026
- Iran suspended transit permittingPersian Gulf Strait Authority halted transit permits, July 13 2026
- US announced 20 percent security feeUS announced 20 percent transit toll for Strait passage, July 13 2026
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