Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket57¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES57¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 7

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

Late state polling mostly places Grüne inside the target band, so a target-band finish is favored.

Most recent state polls and polling trends place Grüne within the target band, commonly around 5% to 6%. The freshest individual readings are supportive, and the party finished in this territory in the previous two state elections. However, some recent polling still puts Grüne at 4%, while normal survey error and unsettled voters create substantial risk around a narrow interval near the parliamentary threshold. A target-band finish is therefore favored.

Points to YES

The freshest individual state poll places Grüne comfortably inside the target band, making an in-range election result more plausible.
On August 27, a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll placed Grüne at 6% in Sachsen-Anhalt.
Aggregated state polling sits inside the band, reducing reliance on any single favorable survey while still leaving exposure to modest movement.
On August 28, the weighted PolitPro trend placed Grüne at 5.4% in Sachsen-Anhalt.
Grüne's recent Sachsen-Anhalt election history is centered near the target band, supporting continuity rather than a large departure.
Grüne received 5.9% in the 2021 state election and 5.2% in 2016.

Points to NO

Ordinary polling error is large relative to this narrow band, so apparently favorable snapshots can still translate into an out-of-range result.
On August 26, Infratest dimap described voting-intention polls as snapshots and gave a typical statistical error of roughly 1 to 3 percentage points.
A recent poll below the lower boundary shows that missing the band on the downside remains a live path.
An August 28 summary reported an August 10 INSA/BILD poll that placed Grüne at 4%.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.