Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+122%$100 paper stake

Kalshi45¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES45¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

WTI sits only 0.55% below the strike amid severe supply disruption, so an October-contract settlement above $92.99 is narrowly favored.

The settlement-basis price is only 0.55% below the threshold, and September 7 trading has already reached above it. Restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic and attacks on energy shipping support another upward move, while recent sub-threshold settlements, weak Chinese imports, and seasonal refinery maintenance limit the margin. A narrow finish above $92.99 is more likely, but sharp moves in either direction remain plausible before settlement.

Points to YES

Intraday trading has already demonstrated enough upside to clear the threshold.
WTI was reported at $93.08 per barrel at 11:05 ET on September 7.
Exceptionally restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic keeps immediate supply risk elevated.
An average of 10 commodity ships per day crossed the Strait during the 10 days through September 6, the lowest rate since May.

Points to NO

WTI begins the final stretch slightly below the required settlement level.
On September 7, settlement-basis WTI stood at $92.4828, or 0.55% below $92.99.
Recent official settlement history shows WTI has struggled to hold the required level.
NYMEX October 2026 WTI settled at $91.48 per barrel on September 4.
Weak Chinese demand reduces support for an already elevated crude price.
China’s seaborne crude imports averaged 7.14 million barrels per day in August and were described as weaker than expected.

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