Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on September 30, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 25 forecast

RTX 5090 rental rates are already above the $0.60 threshold and continue rising, so the Ornn Index is likely to stay above $0.60 by the deadline.

The Ornn RTX 5090 Index is highly likely to finish above $0.60 on September 30 because the underlying rental rates are already well above that level and the supply-demand dynamics strongly favor continued upward pressure. Rental prices for the RTX 5090 reached $0.68 per hour in mid-September and have been climbing steadily since August, driven by supply shortages — including GDDR7 memory constraints and tight retail inventory — and robust demand from AI compute users. While there is always some risk of a sharp short-term reversal, the five-day window offers little time for a major trend change, and available evidence points to sustained scarcity. The forecast reflects this strong fundamental picture with a small probability of an unexpected disruption.

Points to YES

RTX 5090 rental rates are currently around $0.68 per hour, well above the $0.60 threshold, and have been steadily increasing since August.
On September 16, 2026, live rental prices for the RTX 5090 were $0.68 per GPU-hour.
Retail availability of RTX 5090 is extremely limited, with prices on third-party listings from $6,500 to $9,500, indicating severe supply shortage.
As of September 14, 2026, only third-party sellers on Newegg and Amazon carry RTX 5090 at prices between $6,500 and $9,500.
Estimates indicate GDDR7 supply is 30–40% below projections, limiting new RTX 5090 production.
In late September 2026, estimates put GDDR7 supply at 30–40% below initial projections.

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