US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

Realized · 7-day hold+1%$100 paper stake

Polymarket34¢ → 34¢

Our position · NO66¢ → 66¢

Signal endedJul 24

Forecast updatedAug 8

Jul 17 forecast

A completed US-Iran ceasefire by August 14 is extremely unlikely because confirmed US strikes through July 16 leave scant room for the required 14-day strike-free window.

Given confirmed US strikes through July 16, expanded operations signaling, and a collapsed interim deal, a full 14-day strike-free window closing by Aug 14 is extremely unlikely. Whether hostilities cease entirely by July 31 and stay halted through Aug 14, which current evidence strongly contradicts. US strikes reported through July 16 across multiple Iranian provinces and infrastructure, with CENTCOM confirming new rounds July 15. White House and Trump signals lean toward expanding operations, Iran declared the interim deal void, and mediators report no sustained halt.

Points to NO

US strikes reported through July 16 across multiple Iranian provinces and infrastructure, with CENTCOM confirming new rounds July 15.
Evidence
White House and Trump signals lean toward expanding operations, Iran declared the interim deal void, and mediators report no sustained halt.
Evidence

Points to YES

Diplomatic mediators continue efforts and a blockade/restriction framework exists, offering a narrow path to sudden de-escalation.
Evidence

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