Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket40¢ → 0¢

Sep 19 forecast

Administrative dominance in single-member districts offsets subdued party-list polling, so United Russia securing between 325 and 339 seats is favored.

United Russia entered the September 2026 legislative race seeking to preserve its constitutional supermajority in the 450-seat State Duma. In 2021, the party won 324 seats, finishing exactly one seat beneath the 325-to-339 bracket. State-managed pre-election dynamics indicate a deliberate push by the Presidential Administration to match or marginally exceed that baseline. While independent polling indicates genuine public weariness and baseline party affinity in the 30s, official pre-election forecasts from state pollsters anticipate party-list vote shares between 47 and 53 percent. Combined with the exclusion of opposition candidates and the reduction of uncontested districts ceded to systemic opposition, United Russia is positioned to capture over 200 of the 225 single-member constituencies. This district dominance means that even an official party-list return near 45 to 48 percent would yield around 125 to 130 proportional seats, placing the combined outcome squarely within the target 325 to 339 corridor. The primary risks to this outcome are an aggressive overperformance that pushes the party to 340 seats or more, or unexpected friction in electronic and regional tabulations that leaves the tally just under 325 seats.

Points to YES

Dominance across single-member constituencies provides the foundation needed to push United Russia over the 325-seat threshold.
Political analysts projected United Russia winning upwards of 200 of the 225 single-member districts, leaving as few as 16 uncontested slots for nominal opposition parties.
State polling projections and managed turnout targets align directly with securing a calibrated supermajority.
Final state-controlled polling projections placed United Russia at 47 to 53 percent of the party-list vote, while the Kremlin set targeted national benchmarks near 50 percent.

Points to NO

The 2021 baseline outcome fell directly outside the lower boundary of this bracket.
In the 2021 State Duma election, United Russia officially secured 324 seats, exactly one seat shy of the bracket's 325-seat minimum.
An aggressive administrative sweep could overshoot the bracket's upper bound.
Expert projections noted high-end scenarios where United Russia takes up to 210 single-mandate seats and 130 party-list seats, reaching 340 seats.

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