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Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+23%$100 paper stake
Polymarket66¢ 82¢
Our position · YES66¢ 82¢
Signal endedAug 16
Forecast updatedAug 17
Aug 9 forecast

Apple is likely to remain the world’s second-largest company by market cap on August 31 because recent Aug 7-8 data show it well ahead of Alphabet with a stable gap near $250B.

The resolution asks which company is second-largest by market cap at the close on August 31, 2026. The most recent credible tables from Aug 7 and Aug 8 list Apple at about $4.57T to $4.60T and Alphabet at about $4.29T to $4.33T, with Nvidia firmly first near $5.4T. Earlier reports from Aug 3 and Aug 5 claimed Alphabet had edged past Apple, but those figures are contradicted by the newer Aug 7-8 data, which show Apple back in second with a comfortable cushion. Given 22 days remain, the forecast turns on whether Alphabet can erase a gap of roughly a quarter-trillion dollars. Without a catalyst for such a rapid relative shift, the base path is stability. Apple’s share price has been near $313 with strong year-over-year gains, and there is no signal in the supplied data of an impending reversal. Therefore, the outcome is likely Apple holding second place, though it is not guaranteed because equity markets can move quickly and the earlier crossover reports remind us the ranking has been contested recently.

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